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Monday, January 09, 2017
Thin pickings this Saturday with New Years' Day falling as it does on Sunday, but a decent card nonetheless at Newbury for Challow Hurdle day.
However the race that interests me is the handicap hurdle later on the card which in its short history as a class 2 has been completely dominated by upwardly mobile, progressive 5yo's - really no more than you would expect at this time of year, and there is a taking 5yo candidate in this field.
After his recent romp at Chepstow under a double penalty, the Challow Hurdle itself was mooted for Geordie Des Champs who instead stands aside for Baltazar D'Allier and takes his first step into handicap company with Barry Geraghty doing 10-06. That's 2lbs above his minimum to take the ride for Rebecca Curtis and J P McManus, a weight he's only done one other time this current winter season in GB or IRE.
Being first time out of novice company is certainly no barrier, a manoeuvre successfully completed by 2014 winner Polamco for Harry Fry. And the bonus here is that Geordie Des Champs, who already looks well treated on OR 129, certainly appeals as one who will be better in a better race with a suitable pace to aim at.
The ground looks fine, as does the grade, the trip, track and opposition. He's bang on the right profile for the race, there's been good money for him overnight and yet the price is currently OK - certainly liveable compared to several recent winners.
3pm Newbury, Geordie Des Champs. 1.5pt win 7/2 generally
** The subject of a huge on course gamble by connections, ran a fine race to finish 2nd, pipped by another very progressive 5yo, the leaders miles clear **
Herbie is one of the resident pro gamblers in the ENIGMA forum.
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Betfred Wishing You A Happy New Year Handicap Hurdle, Class 2
Monday, January 09, 2017
Thin pickings this Saturday with New Years' Day falling as it does on Sunday, but a decent card nonetheless at Newbury for Challow Hurdle day.
However the race that interests me is the handicap hurdle later on the card which in its short history as a class 2 has been completely dominated by upwardly mobile, progressive 5yo's - really no more than you would expect at this time of year, and there is a taking 5yo candidate in this field.
After his recent romp at Chepstow under a double penalty, the Challow Hurdle itself was mooted for Geordie Des Champs who instead stands aside for Baltazar D'Allier and takes his first step into handicap company with Barry Geraghty doing 10-06. That's 2lbs above his minimum to take the ride for Rebecca Curtis and J P McManus, a weight he's only done one other time this current winter season in GB or IRE.
Being first time out of novice company is certainly no barrier, a manoeuvre successfully completed by 2014 winner Polamco for Harry Fry. And the bonus here is that Geordie Des Champs, who already looks well treated on OR 129, certainly appeals as one who will be better in a better race with a suitable pace to aim at.
The ground looks fine, as does the grade, the trip, track and opposition. He's bang on the right profile for the race, there's been good money for him overnight and yet the price is currently OK - certainly liveable compared to several recent winners.
3pm Newbury, Geordie Des Champs. 1.5pt win 7/2 generally
** The subject of a huge on course gamble by connections, ran a fine race to finish 2nd, pipped by another very progressive 5yo, the leaders miles clear **
Herbie is one of the resident pro gamblers in the ENIGMA forum.
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32Red Casino Handicap Chase (1.50pm Sandown, Class 2)
Monday, January 09, 2017
Assuming the forecast is right and Sandown avoids overnight frost, the Esher venue hosts the best of this Saturday's action on Tolworth Hurdle day.
The final of the veterans' chase series is sure to prove popular with backers, but the race that interests me is the 2-mile handicap chase earlier on the card, which is normally won by an improving chaser with decent form.
This century, by far the most successful group of runners fit this profile - max 9 previous chase starts, single figure SP and a maximum handicap mark of 147.
Since 2000 this criteria has produced 28 qualifiers (generally around 3 or 4 per year) and from the annual short-list, the winner has emerged in; 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2012, 2013, 2015 & 2016. In fact, when you put a line through the years the race wasn't held, there has only actually been one failure since 2004.
Unusually, just one qualifier this year, the Tom Symonds trained HOLLYWOODIEN, a big imposing 6yo French import. Hollywoodien took a major step forward on his last start and dropping back to 2-miles looks fine at this stiffer venue.
Outside this trend a dark horse lurking is ex Gigginstown inmate BRIGHT NEW DAWN, on first start for Venetia Williams. He has quality form around right-handed tracks like Punchestown and has run very well in the past after a break. He's still only 10 and as a 9yo he won a better race than this from the same mark. If Venetia has sweetened him up, he represents a touch of value.
Hollywoodien, 1pt win 7/2
Bright New Dawn, 0.5pt win 10/1 generally
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